Free Agent Profile: Carlos Correa
Shortstop Carlos Correa; Image by Mary DeCicco/Getty Images via NJ.com
Player: Carlos Correa
Age: 27
Position: SS
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Carlos Correa is one of the closest players in the MLB to being a complete and true 5-tool player. The first overall pick of the Houston Astros in 2012 is a legitimate choice for the best remaining free agent during the times of this lockout. In 7 solid seasons with the ‘Stros, Correa was a three-time all-star selection, 2017 World-Series Champion, 2015 AL Rookie of the Year, and 2021 Platinum Glove Award winner. Below are his slash lines in each season of his career so far.
Carlos Correa has been very successful at the plate thus far in his career, having a SLG% below the league average from 2015-2021 in 2 of his 7 seasons. In his 7 seasons, he has yet to post an OBP% below the league-average mark of .320.
Apart from his hitting, Carlos Correa is still one of the most valuable shortstops in the entire MLB. As mentioned earlier, Correa won the 2021 AL Platinum Glove award, which is given to the best defensive player in the league. According to BaseballSavant, Carlos Correa was in the 98th percentile of MLB players in Outs Above Average (OAB). This statistic “is the cumulative effect of all individual plays a fielder has been credited or debited with”. Only 5 MLB shortstops ranked higher in this statistic (Nicky Lopez, Francisco Lindor, Nick Ahmed, Andrelton Simmons, and Brandon Crawford). Note that of this group, only Crawford had a higher OPS than Correa in 2021.
The only critics of Carlos Correa that teams may have regard his speed. Shortstops are usually known to be some of the fastest players on the field, as they are required to cover the most range of any infielder. However, Carlos Correa falls in just the 48th percentile of all MLB players in sprint speed. Correa is ranked 32nd of 44 MLB shortstops in their average 90ft sprint-splits (minimum 10 opportunities).
Predictions:
Shortstop Corey Seager; Image by Christian Peterson/Getty Images via KTLA
When estimating the type of contract that Carlos Correa will receive, we can look towards Corey Seager for help with this. Corey Seager, another 27-year-old star shortstop, signed a contract for 10 years, with $325 million guaranteed earlier this offseason. Although Seager undoubtedly brings a bit more value to the plate, he is nowhere near the defender Correa is (Seager is in the 6th percentile in OAB). Francisco Lindor is also a good comparison for Correa, as he signed a contract with the Mets for 10 years and $341 million guaranteed back in January 2021. I would be surprised if Correa signed a contract in which the length/dollar amount deviated significantly from these two contracts.
Below are some potential suitors for Carlos Correa (in no particular order)…
New York Yankees: The Yankees are one or two pieces from making a World Series run, and their biggest hole in their lineup is at the shortstop position. The Gleyber Torres experiment has run its course, and the Yankees are good bets to sign Carlos Correa or fellow free-agent shortstop Trevor Story.
Chicago Cubs: After trading away their two biggest infield pieces over the 2021 campaign, the Cubs looked like they may be going into a rebuild… and then they spent $71 million on Marcus Stroman. It’s hard to tell if they are a rebuilding team or a team that wants to compete. If they are the latter, Correa might be well-suited for the Windy City, as they still have LOTS of money to work with.
Houston Astros: Houston is still a perennial World Series contender and Correa is already an icon in the city of Houston. Even though he declined Houston’s qualifying offer of $18.7 million, it’s hard to see the Astros giving up on their pursuit of bringing Correa back.
